Olivier Award Predictions – Musical

BY ALEX KINGSTON

Saturday 1st April 2023

2023 was an amazing year for new musicals and revivals alike, with several new productions bursting onto the West End stage. Among these was Standing at the Sky’s Edge, which was the most nominated musical of the season and features an original score by singer-songwriter Richard Hawley. This year also marked the debut of the new musical Tammy Faye, whose music was composed by none other than Sir Elton John! Looking beyond new musicals, a number of much-loved classics were revived too, with Oklahoma becoming one of the most hyped productions of the season. Tickets were so in-demand for its initial run at the Young Vic that it has now transferred to the West End, where it will play an extended run at the Wyndham’s Theatre. As for which of these shows will emerge victorious at the Olivier Awards, here are our predictions!

Best Original Score or New Orchestrations

Nominees:

Tom Deering for orchestrating and Richard Hawley for scoring and lyricising Standing at the Sky’s Edge
Andrea Grody for arranging, Jamshied Sharifi for orchestrating and David Yazbek for scoring and lyricising The Band’s Visit
Joe Hisaishi for scoring and Will Stuart for arranging and orchestrating My Neighbour Totoro
Daniel Kluger for arranging and orchestrating and Nathan Koci for vocal arranging Oklahoma

Prediction: Tom Deering for orchestrating and Richard Hawley for scoring and lyricising Standing at the Sky’s Edge

This is always a difficult category to call; it is hard to compare an original score against new orchestrations, as the two utilise very different skills. In an ideal world, they would compete in separate categories, but that’s a story for another time! In the category’s current form, the likeliest winner will be Standing at the Sky’s Edge. Hawley’s score is said to evoke strong emotions from its audience and is integral to the impact that the show delivers. Furthermore, the fact that this production remains the most acclaimed musical of the season will likely help its claim to the award. The closest competition arguably comes from Oklahoma, as Daniel Kluger is responsible for having completely reimagined the show’s orchestrations from its original incarnation. This however may be considered less award-worthy than composing an entirely new score, which is why Tom Deering and Richard Hawley are the ones to beat.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Musical

Nominees:

Beverley Knight as Emmeline Pankhurst in Sylvia
Maimuna Memon as Nikki in Standing at the Sky’s Edge
Liza Sadovy as Aunt Eller Murphy in Oklahoma
Marisha Wallace as Ado Annie Carnes in Oklahoma

Prediction: Marisha Wallace as Ado Annie Carnes in Oklahoma

While the entire production of Oklahoma has received an overwhelmingly positive response, it is notable that Wallace’s performance has been singled out by numerous critics as an overall highlight. In addition to this, it is an important fact that Ali Stoker won the Tony Award for playing this role in the same production on Broadway. As a result, Ado Annie has proven itself to be an award-winning role, which puts Wallace at a clear advantage. The other potential winner here however could be Beverley Knight, who is now on her third Olivier nomination. The fact that Knight has been nominated twice previously though has yet to win could work in her favour, as the Oliviers may wish to recognise her continued theatrical success over these past few years. Overall though, it is Wallace who still has the edge.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Musical

Nominees:

Sharif Afifi as Haled in The Band’s Visit
Peter Polycarpou as Avrum in The Band’s Visit
Clive Rowe as Lt Eddie Souther in Sister Act
Zubin Varla as Jerry Falwell in Tammy Faye

Prediction: Sharif Afifi as Haled in The Band’s Visit

The favourite for this award would have arguably been Patrick Vaill for his sensational performance in Oklahoma, having already won the Evening Standard Award. In what came as a shock to many within the theatre community, Vaill was excluded from the list of nominees, meaning that the race is wide open. The two strongest contenders here are Sharif Afifi and Zubin Varla, both of whom received critical acclaim. The role of Haled in The Band’s Visit is a scene-stealing role, which is demonstrated by the fact that Ari’el Stachel received a Tony Award for portraying this same character on Broadway. Varla however has enjoyed similar praise as a stand-out performer, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see either of them win.

Best Actress in a Musical

Nominees:

Katie Brayben as Tammy Faye Messner in Tammy Faye
Anoushka Lucas as Laurey Williams in Oklahoma
Miri Mesika as Dina in The Band’s Visit
Faith Omole as Joy in Standing at the Sky’s Edge

Prediction: Katie Brayben as Tammy Faye Messner in Tammy Faye

Unlike the previous category, this award has a clear frontrunner in the form of Katie Brayben in Tammy Faye. Praised for her spectacular voice and magnetic stage presence, Brayben’s performance was among the most hyped of the season. In fact, some critics suggested that it was her portrayal of Tammy Faye Messner that elevated the piece to achieve greatness. As a consequence, it would be a surprise if she did not emerge victorious on the big night. The potential spoiler here is Miri Mesika, who’s playing a role that previously allowed for her Broadway counterpart Katrina Lenk to win a Tony Award. Having said that, it is more likely than not that Brayben will win.

Best Actor in a Musical

Nominees:

Alon Moni Aboutboul as Lt Col Tewfiq Zacharya in The Band’s Visit
Arthur Darvill as Curly McLain in Oklahoma
Julian Ovenden as Emile de Becque in South Pacific
Andrew Rannells as Jim Bakker in Tammy Faye

Prediction: Alon Moni Aboutboul as Lt Col Tewfiq Zacharya in The Band’s Visit

This category, along with Best Supporting Actor, was among the hardest to predict. I went back and forth on my choice multiple times, before eventually settling on Aboutboul as the expected winner. Similar to previous categories, the role of Tewfiq has proven itself to be award-worthy, as Tony Shalhoub received a Tony Award for playing this character in the show’s Broadway incarnation. Praise given to Aboutboul’s performance in reviews was not dissimilar to the praise given to Shalhoub’s performance; if the one can win an award for this performance, then there is no reason why the other shouldn’t either. There are however very convincing arguments to be made that either Andrew Rannells or Julian Ovenden are the strongest contenders for this award too, and it certainly wouldn’t be a shock for any of them to win.

Best Musical Revival

Nominees:

My Fair Lady
Oklahoma
Sister Act
South Pacific

Prediction: Oklahoma

As previously mentioned, the new revival of Oklahoma took London by storm. After having played sold-out runs on Broadway and at the Young Vic, the show is now playing in the West End, where it is continuing to garner support from critics and audiences alike. It was one of the most nominated productions of the seasons, further increasing the likelihood that it will win this award. South Pacific would otherwise be a very worthy winner, but this year it seems as if Oklahoma may very well prove unstoppable. As for snubs, it was a little disappointing to see Grease omitted from the list of nominees; a production so popular that it is in fact returning to the West End later this year.

Best New Musical

Nominees:

The Band’s Visit
Standing at the Sky’s Edge
Sylvia
Tammy Faye

Prediction: Standing at the Sky’s Edge

Standing at the Sky’s Edge has enjoyed rave reviews, receiving numerous five-star ratings. As previously established, it was also the most nominated musical of the season, so it seems that the Oliviers are in agreement with the high levels of commendation. The production has been lauded for its script, musical score, and performances, so it clearly has a lot going for it. Furthermore, considering that successful British musicals are somewhat more scarce than successful American musicals, this is yet another reason why the show will be rewarded for its efforts. On the latter point, the same argument could be made for Tammy Faye, which means the award will likely boil down to a competition between these two productions. Standing at the Sky’s Edge is still the favourite however, though only time will tell if this stays true!